Menu IconA vertical stack of three evenly spaced horizontal lines. Most agree that we have witnessed the end of a massive, three-decade bull market in bonds. Some are also skeptical of the potential for returns in the stock market in the years ahead, given common valuation multiples that are currently above historical averages. We asked a few of our favorite traders, strategists, and economists for their best investment ideas for the next 10 years. They won’t business Ideas With Low Investment those cents for several years yet because Greek GDP is still some way from the triggers, so they are suited to the patient professional investor with a long term horizon.
1m that will be investing aggressively into World Cup 2022 to transform itself into a destination for millions of tourists. Cities that are competitive may not be the outright cheapest: they are cheaper than tier-1 cities, but still have the fixed capital and stability to support enterprise. The reason for this choice is that the volatility risk premium is one of the best and most persistent sources of risk-adjusted returns, and selling the middle of the VIX curve has outperformed a lot of related volatility strategies. With this in mind, my ten-year lock-in investment would be agricultural land. And if we are entering a rising rate environment, you get to reinvest amortizing principal in higher coupons.
Rates would have to fall significantly to accelerate prepayments. Plus supply will be shrinking acting as a natural cap on yields. Banks still have tepid loan demand and rising deposits. Baltics in Europe is one good spot with favorable macroeconomic environment amidst stimulative external conditions. Something with as solid yield as possible in a decent currency. I own a yield play in Singapore dollars, as an example. It’s an area that has not matched in any sense the uplift in global equities.
Any dips in copper prices have been bought by the Chinese as they add to inventories. White flight and the de-industrialization of our cities is a trend that’s over. Investment case for these is made by the expectation that once Emerging and Middle-Income economies’ middle and upper-middle classes satisfy their demand for leather couches and SUVs, their demand will refocus on their health and life expectancy. I expect little inflation—and more likely, deflation—so changes in real and nominal commodity prices will be about the same. Sure the energy renaissance has a long time horizon, but what will it look like in 3 years much less 10? I have a chart below that is my favorite chart of all time. I created it over a decade ago and it hasn’t failed me yet. Energy-intensive manufacturing in the USA, generic biopharmaceutical products and any company globally that will be able to lever off the Chinese consumer. I have been plowing money into our own asset management business.
This is not a reflection on the price of stocks or bonds, but more on the state of the financial industry. Wall Street is very good at serving its own interests, but terrible at serving its clients. This has created a huge opportunity or anyone who wants to put their clients first. I am partial to Asian growth and was initially going to offer EWH or EWS but they both have small populations. The Indonesian ETFs give exposure to a large population with trading relationships throughout Asia but also seems too concentrated. Never forget the quote Mark Twain is credited for: ‘History may not repeat itself but it often rhymes. 10 cheapest countries as determined by long-term valuation metrics like the Shiller CAPE ratio. Climate change is altering the natural supply areas.
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